On April 1, voters in Florida’s first and fifth congressional districts went to the polls to elect their new congressperson. These deep-red districts, where President Donald Trump won by over 30 points, were expected to be safe Republican holds with little fanfare. However, as the results came in, what seemed just a silly April Fools joke became reality.
Both Republicans in the first and fifth districts only won by about 15 points, a nearly 20-point reduction from Trump’s performance in the November election. This represents a massive overperformance by the Democratic Party.
The reasons behind this overperformance are twofold. For one, Democrats have overperformed in lower-turnout elections since 2020. Due to changes in the makeup of the Democratic party, more high-propensity voters vote for Democrats. This means that during a special election on a random Tuesday in a non-election election year, Democrats are predisposed to overperformance.
However, the second reason is a more general dissatisfaction and anger with the Trump administration. From the uncertainty of tariffs to mass deportation to Elon Musk and the Department of Government Officany , there are a wide variety of reasons for a voter not to support this administration. This is normal; after an administration is sworn in, they generally do poorly in special elections and in the midterms after they first win.
What is unique, however, about what these special election results symbolize is the tangible impacts they are having on political appointments in the Trump administration.
Elise Stefanik, Republican congresswoman from New York, was picked to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. However, Trump pulled this nomination because of the tight margins the GOP has in the House. Given these Florida special election results, there were also fears that the GOP could lose the safe red seat in upstate N.Y. A 20-point shift in that district would mean a democratic victory.
These special elections in Florida are a validation of the prevailing mainstream narrative about the 2026 midterms: that Republicans are looking at major losses if the popularity of Trump continues to drop. As the election calendar moves forward, it also signals concerning results in races like the Virginia governor’s race and the New Jersey governor’s race, both set to take place this November.
