Throughout almost the entire 2024 general election, Vice President Kamala Harris and President-Elect Donald Trump focused heavily on the same seven states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia. These swing states add up to over 90 electoral votes and typically determine who wins the presidential election. In the 2024 election, all seven swing states’ electoral votes are projected to go to Trump.
Arizona
As of Nov. 11, 92.5% of Arizona’s votes have been counted, with Trump projected to win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. Trump secured 1,655,759 votes, accounting for 52.3% of the total vote. This win was no surprise as most polls predicted Trump winning the state, with a few pre-election polls predicting his win outside of the margin of error. Despite a rise in minority groups voting, in 2020, 74% of voters were white, compared to 63% of voters in 2020, a group that was expected to vote for the Democrats. Trump took back the state after Biden won Arizona in 2020.
Arizona’s exit polls show that the issue of greatest importance to voters was the state of democracy, with 35% of voters saying that mattered most. 31% of voters cited the economy as the most important issue, followed by 17% for immigration, 12% for abortion and 4% for foreign policy.
Wisconsin
With 99% of the vote counted, Trump has won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes. He received 1,697,298 votes, accounting for 49.7% of the battleground state’s vote. Despite President Joe Biden winning the state in 2020, Trump was able to flip the state in his favor. For most voters, the economy and inflation were the major factors that decided their vote for president, with 35% citing the economy as the most important deciding factor. Over 80% of voters believe their income is not keeping up with inflation.
Exit polls show that besides the economy, 32% of voters cited the state of democracy as the most important factor in their vote, 16% chose abortion, 12% chose immigration and 3% cited foreign policy.
Michigan
Michigan’s 15 electoral votes went to Trump. With 99% of the vote counted, Trump received 2,804,647 votes, making up 49.7%. Union backing and the “uncommitted” movement heavily affected the vote. Despite the Michigan Teamsters Council and the United Auto Workers endorsing Harris, this was not to turn the tide in her favor. Perhaps this is due to the refusal of the “uncommitted” movement — pro-Palestinian, anti-war Democrats — to endorse Harris. This was expected because of the prevalent protests against the war in Gaza and Biden’s handling of it throughout the state. In Dearborn, Mich., the city with the largest Arab population in the state, Trump won with 42.48% of the vote. This is a sharp contrast from 2020, when Biden won the city with 68.8% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 29.9%.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, one of the most important battleground states, Trump won the 16 electoral votes with 2,878,071 total votes, equating to 51% of the vote. A major concern leading into the election was Hurricane Helene, causing hurdles to election officials, but voter turnout still turned out strong. North Carolina set an early voting record with more than 4.2 million people casting early ballots at in-person voting sites.
Trump won a sizeable gain in voters aged 18-29, winning 48% of their vote, a number that is up eight points from 2020 exit polls. Additionally, Trump won 56% of the vote from white women, which is eight points less than shown in 2020 exit polls. The economy was the most important issue to North Carolina voters with 36% of voters saying the economy mattered most when deciding who to vote for. 31% of voters believed the state of democracy was the most important, 13% chose abortion, 12% selected immigration as the most important factor and 4% believed it to be foreign policy.
Nevada
As the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nevada since 2004, Trump gained all six electoral votes. He won 50.6% of the vote, amounting to 748,059 total votes. Trump appealed to voters by focusing on the tourist economy and pledging to end taxes on tips and overtime. Since Nevada has a high concentration of Latino voters, it was an especially important battleground state.
Trump performed much better with Hispanic voters than in 2020, winning 46% of their vote, an 11-point increase from 2020 according to exit polls. This is incredibly significant, as Hispanic voters were a group Harris was depending on to win the state. When asked which issue is most important in deciding who to vote for in the Presidential Election 33% cited the state of democracy. Additionally, 32% of voters believe it to be the economy, 15% said immigration, 11% said abortion and 5% chose foreign policy.
Pennsylvania
Trump won Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes with 50.5% of the vote, equaling 3,522,545 votes and flipping the state from the Democrats. Pennsylvania has a strong community of white blue-collar workers and diverse populations in the big cities such as Philadelphia, an area Harris was relying on. Fracking was a major issue for Pennsylvania voters due to the state’s high concentration of energy-related jobs.
According to exit polls, Trump won 59% of white male voters in Pennsylvania, three points less than he won in 2020. Furthermore, Trump’s share of voters under 45 is up seven points from 2020, winning 44% of their vote. The economy and state of democracy were tied as the most important issues for voters, with 31% of voters picking the economy and an additional 31% choosing the state of democracy. 15% chose abortion as the most important issue in deciding how to vote in the election, 12% chose immigration and 3% chose foreign policy.
Georgia
With 99% of the vote in Georgia counted Trump has won the state’s 16 electoral votes with a total of 2,662,961 votes, equating to 50.7% of the total vote. Georgia typically goes red, but Biden was able to flip the state by a narrow margin in 2020, something Harris failed to do this election.
Trump did well with White voters, winning 71% of the white vote, two percentage points higher than in the 2020 exit polls. 39% of the voters believe the economy to be the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential election. 28% believe it to be the state of democracy, 14% chose abortion, 10% chose immigration and 4% selected foreign policy.
