On Jan. 23, Donald Trump won the Republican New Hampshire primary, and President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary. This was the first primary of the 2024 election cycle, an early indicator of who is likely to win the presidential nomination.

“A primary comes before a general election, and, essentially, it’s where a state will hold a mock election to see if the candidate that is supported would be finalized on the ballot,” U.S. Government Honors teacher Kailey Almonte said.

New Hampshire has been the site of the first presidential primary for over a century, with a 1975 law cementing this into place. It is an open primary, meaning that Independents are either to cast a vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate on primary day. This year set a record for the New Hampshire primary for having the highest turnout, with over 300,000 people voting.

 In 2023, the Democratic Party and the Biden administration decided to change its primary calendar to focus on campaigning more in South Carolina, Michigan and Georgia. The New Hampshire legislature, run by Republicans, refused to comply with the Democratic National Committee. This made Biden the first incumbent president in over 50 years to not file in the New Hampshire primary. 

Therefore, Biden did not appear on the ballot but launched an aggressive write-in campaign. This worked, as Biden won the primary, beating Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips. This win is mostly symbolic, as there were no delegates up for grabs for the Democratic Party.

The stakes for the Republican party were higher. Nikki Haley and Trump were the front runners, with Haley serving as Trump’s largest threat. Despite spending a significant amount of time and resources on the New Hampshire primary and finishing second, Haley does not seem defeated.

“This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go,” Haley said at a rally.

Trump won 12 delegates and 54.3% of the vote, while Haley won nine delegates and 43.2% of the vote.

“If [Trump] does get the primary win, it could potentially push the agenda that we believe is likely to happen, which is that he will get the party nomination,” Almonte said.

Since 1976, the New Hampshire primary has predicted five out of the seven candidates who won the Republican nomination. Only two of these five, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, went on to serve as president.

The next major primary is on Feb. 24 in South Carolina.